![]() The asteroid risk is real, but we should not overstate it. The short observation arcs make their pre-impact orbits highly uncertain, so a few small bodies spread within $\pm\sigma$ of each orbital element value may improve your chances.Īlternatively you could set an object up for immediate collision with Earth at a relative speed of 12 to 20 km/s in any direction, and run the simulator backward to see how it would get there. If you're already modeling real asteroids, try some which have hit Earth: In a simulation, the timestep should also be short enough to detect a collision.Īn object at a moderate relative speed of 10 km/s crosses Earth's diameter in about 20 minutes a longer timestep could turn a hit into a miss. ![]() A NEO only impacts Earth if both bodies are in the orbit intersection zone at the same time, closely enough for gravity $(F \propto 1/r^2)$ to bring them in contact. ![]()
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